| 引用本文: | 汤宏波,余海峰,李富山,赵素婷,吕新华.2025.气候正义视角下的全球CO2排放的历史责任与发展权[J].地球环境学报,16(6):786-794, 822 |
| TANG Hongbo,YU Haifeng,LI Fushan,ZHAO Suting,LÜ Xinhua.2025.Climate justice: the historical responsibility for global CO2 emissions and the right to development[J].Journal of Earth Environment,16(6):786-794, 822 |
|
| |
|
|
| 本文已被：浏览 995次 下载 641次 |
码上扫一扫！ |
|
|
| 气候正义视角下的全球CO2排放的历史责任与发展权 |
|
汤宏波1*，余海峰2，李富山1，赵素婷1，吕新华1
|
1.中国科学院武汉文献情报中心，科技大数据湖北省重点实验室，武汉 430071
2.中国科学院武汉植物园，中国科学院中-非联合研究中心，武汉 430074
|
|
| 摘要: |
| “共同但有区别责任”的全球气候治理原则仍争议颇多，通过分析197个经济体的历史碳排放量、人均碳排放量、人均GDP等发现：（1）低收入、中低收入、中高收入和高收入经济体历史排放量占比分别为0.68%、9.15%、30.54%和58.47%，美国历史排放量几乎是21世纪余年1.5 ℃温控目标的碳预算总额；（2）高收入经济体人均碳排放量是低收入经济体的11.31—31.78倍，美国人均碳排量为中国的2.01—32.26倍（平均为6.65倍）；（3）高收入国家消耗了大部分碳预算，获得了先发优势，而今继续充当气候领导者将其霸权影响强加给全球南方国家。碳约束背景下的技术水平等因素，将导致各经济体的发展水平差距进一步拉大。发展中国家和最不发达国家应获得公平、合理的碳预算份额以及相应的资金和技术支持，以确保可持续发展的能力。 |
| 关键词: 气候争议 历史责任 气候治理 可持续发展 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE242019 |
| CSTR：32259.14.JEE242019 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中国科学院战略研究与决策支持系统建设专项课题（GHJ-ZLZX-2024-07）；中国科学院国际合作局出国专题研究项目阶段性成果（科际批字0034号） |
| 英文基金项目:Special Project on the Construction of Strategic Research and Decision Support System in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (GHJ-ZLZX-2024-07); Interim Results of the Special Study Project for Overseas Visits by the International Cooperation Bureau of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Interdisciplinary Approval No. 0034) |
|
| Climate justice: the historical responsibility for global CO2 emissions and the right to development |
|
TANG Hongbo1*, YU Haifeng2, LI Fushan1, ZHAO Suting1, LÜ Xinhua1
|
1. National Science Library (Wuhan), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hubei Key Laboratory of Big Data in Science and Technology, Wuhan 430071, China
2. Wuhan Botanical Garden, Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China
|
| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope As the target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 ℃ nears an unmanageable threshold, the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” in global climate governance remains highly contentious among different economies. This principle is fundamental because it recognizes the unequal contributions and capabilities of countries in addressing climate change. The primary objective is to clarify the historical responsibility for CO2 emissions, assert the right to development for various economies, and advance global sustainable development through evidence-based policy recommendations. This includes examining how the historical carbon footprint influences current responsibilities and shapes future economic growth pathways for different regions. Through this research, we aim to promote equitable solutions that balance historical responsibility with the development needs of diverse economies. Materials and methods This paper analyzes historical carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions, GDP per capita, and carbon intensity across 197 economies (65 high-income, 52 upper-middle-income, 54 lower-middle-income, and 26 low-income) using data from the Carbon Emissions Database of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, and the World Bank’s population and per capita GDP data. Results (1) From 1850 to 2021, global CO2 emissions from energy use totaled 1604 Gt, with the distribution across income groups as follows: low-income economies contributed 0.68%, lower-middle-income economies 9.15%, upper-middle-income economies 30.54%, and high-income economies 58.47%. The historical emissions of the United States, the high-income country with the highest GDP, exceed 400 Gt, which nearly matches the entire carbon budget for limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 ℃ for the rest of the 21st century. (2) From 1960 to 2021, per capita carbon emissions in high-income economies were 11.31 to 31.78 times higher than in low-income economies. On average, the United States emitted the equivalent of one person’s carbon emissions for every 2.01 to 32.26 people in China, with an average of 6.65 people. (3) Historically, high-income countries have consumed most of the Earth’s carbon budget, gaining an early advantage. Currently, they continue to dominate international climate negotiations, using their influence to impose their priorities on the Global South. In contrast, low-income countries and highly climate-vulnerable island nations contribute the least to the climate crisis yet bear the highest costs. (4) High-income countries have not met their commitments to provide financial and technological support to developing countries to mitigate climate change. Meanwhile, China has made significant contributions to global carbon reduction, energy conservation, and sustainable development, particularly in other Southern economies. Carbon intensity in upper-middle, lower-middle, and low-income economies is 2.73, 3.29, and 1.95 times that of high-income economies, respectively. Discussion The United States, the high-income country with the largest GDP, has historically emitted over 400 Gt of carbon, nearly exhausting the carbon budget needed to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ℃ for the remainder of the century. Since the early 21st century, high-income economies like the U.S. have used their early-industrialization advantage to relocate high-emission industries to developing countries, effectively shifting their historical responsibilities and causing a significant increase in global emissions. The wealthiest 10% of the world’s population is responsible for emissions nearly equivalent to those of the remaining 90%. The impacts of the climate crisis are not equally distributed; the poorest nations, despite contributing the least to the crisis, suffer the greatest consequences. Global climate governance, policies, and scientific endeavors must be rooted in equal partnerships, but climate negotiations have been skewed by the global North’s dominant discourse, prioritizing its own interests. It is essential to create fair, transparent, accountable, and non-corrupt decision-making processes to foster a culture of climate justice. Conclusions The historical responsibility of high-income economies, particularly the United States, is estimated to be around 60%. With carbon emissions limits and disparities in carbon intensity and technology, the gap between the economic development levels of global economies is likely to widen. Therefore, developing and least-developed countries should be entitled to a fair and reasonable allocation of the carbon budget, along with the necessary financial and technological support to ensure sustainable development. Recommendations and perspectives The study offers recommendations from the perspectives of climate justice and global sustainable development, aiming to clarify historical responsibilities and advance equitable global solutions. |
| Key words: climate controversy historical responsibility climate governance sustainable development |
|
|
|
|
|
