高质量发展背景下数字经济对黄河流域产业转型的影响分析

Impact of the digital economy on industrial transformation in the Yellow River Basin: evidence from the perspective of high-quality development

关键词:  数字经济  产业转型  黄河流域  影响分析

Key words:  digital economy  industrial transformation  Yellow River Basin  impact analysis

摘要:

数字经济作为新一轮技术革命催生出的新质经济形态，正在深刻重塑黄河流域传统产业组织结构、生产方式和演进模态。基于此，文章以黄河流域为研究对象，选取2012—2022年省级面板数据，利用基准回归模型实证检验数字经济对黄河流域产业转型的作用机制和影响效应。结果表明：(1) 数字经济对黄河流域产业结构合理化和高级化的影响系数分别为-0.253、0.138，均在1%的置信水平上显著，表明数字经济在抑制黄河流域产业结构发生偏离的同时，也能有效驱动产业结构高级化演进，从而实现产业结构合理化与高级化协同升级；在进一步替换被解释变量进行稳健性检验后发现，数字经济对产业结构合理化与高级化的双向促进效应依然显著(p<0.01)，证实了前述基准回归结果具有较强的稳健性。(2) Bootstrap检验结果发现，创业增长对产业结构合理化、高级化的中介系数分别为-0.269 (p<0.05) 和0.207 (p<0.01)，中介效应占比分别为59.5%和75.5%，意味着数字经济在黄河流域产业转型中发挥着显著的中介作用。(3) 在合理化演进中，数字经济发展显著降低了上游地区产业结构合理化泰尔指数 (系数-0.261，p<0.01)，能够有效推动上游产业结构合理化演进，但对中下游地区的影响却不显著。在高级化进程中，数字经济对全流域均具有显著的正向促进作用(p<0.01)，且影响系数呈现出下游 (0.653) >中游 (0.456) >上游 (0.160) 的空间梯度特征。

Abstract:

Background, aim, and scope The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a pivotal region for China's ecological conservation and high-quality development. The region has, however, been plagued by structural issues such as short industrial chains, low product value-added, and high environmental burdens. There has been a deep-seated structural inertia rooted in extensive reliance on resource inputs. Under the strict constraints of China's goals for green and low-carbon economic transition, including the dual carbon goals, dependence on this traditional path may inhibit industrial expansion as industry comes up against ecological red lines and resource carrying capacity. The result may be a vicious cycle of economic crises and environmental disasters. The digital economy, however, as a newer form of economic activity, demonstrates immense potential to reshape production and achieve leaps in efficiency through the digitalization of production processes, the intelligent upgrading of products, and the networked restructuring of industrial supply chains. This offers a crucial solution to the YRB's dependence on resources, and may drive systemic industrial transformation. Against this background, this study aims to systematically examine how the digital economy promotes industrial transformation in the YRB, with a particular focus on its effects, underlying mechanisms, and regional heterogeneity across the provinces within the basin. Materials and methods This study used provincial panel data from 2012 to 2022 and a baseline regression model to empirically examine the mechanisms and effects of the digital economy on industrial transformation in the YRB. Results (1) The coefficients for the impact of the digital economy on the rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure in the YRB were −0.253 and 0.138, respectively, and both statistically significant at the 1% confidence level. Further robustness tests, conducted by substituting the dependent variables, revealed that the digital economy's bidirectional promotional effects on rationalization and upgrading remained significant (p<0.01) and confirmed strong robustness. (2) Bootstrap test results indicated that the mediation coefficients of entrepreneurial growth on industrial structure rationalization and upgrading were −0.269 (p<0.05) and 0.207 (p<0.01), respectively, accounting for 59.5% and 75.5% of the total effect. (3) The development of the digital economy effectively promoted rationalization of the industrial structure in the upstream region shown by a significantly reduced Theil index (coefficient: −0.261, p<0.01). However, its impact on the middle and downstream regions was not significant. In the process of upgrading, the digital economy exerts a significant positive promotional effect across the entire basin (p<0.01), and the impact coefficients exhibit a spatial gradient pattern of downstream (0.653>midstream 0.456>upstream 0.160). Discussion This paper reveals the mechanisms through which the digital economy drives industrial transformation in the YRB, empirically testing its impact and driving pathways. The findings are largely consistent with previous literature, but it is clear that the digital economy exhibits strong characteristics of factor diffusion across time and space, and there is still work to do in understanding the cross-regional spillover effects. Conclusions (1) The digital economy drives the transformation of the industrial structure in the YRB through both rationalization and upgrading. (2) Entrepreneurial growth has played a significant mediating role in the digital economy's empowerment of industrial transformation in the YRB. (3) This empowerment exhibits spatial heterogeneity, manifested as a strong rationalization correction effect on industrial transformation in upstream regions and a spatial gradient of upgrading that diminishes progressively from downstream to upstream. Recommendations and perspectives Fiscal support and policy incentives for digital infrastructure in the YRB should be increased. Building on the national strategy of East Data and West Computing, efforts should be made to promote cross-regional data-sharing, technology transfer, and industrial collaboration, while giving greater consideration to the spatial spillover effects of the digital economy across neighboring regions. This would facilitate the free flow of resources between upstream and downstream regions, strengthen the diffusion of digital benefits across regional boundaries, and support the identification of appropriate spatial boundaries for industrial collaboration, thereby achieving coordinated industrial transformation across the whole basin. Digital technologies should also be used to modernize traditional energy-intensive and high-pollution industries and accelerate the integration of the digital and real economies in the old industrial bases along the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River.