基于安全公正空间的黄河流域自然-社会系统可持续发展评估

Sustainable development assessment of the natural-social systems in the Yellow River Basin based on the perspective of safe and just operating space theory

关键词:  安全公正空间  黄河流域  自然系统  社会系统  可持续发展

Key words:  the safe and just space theory  Yellow River Basin  natural system  social system  sustainable development

摘要:

黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展已取得阶段性重要进展，但对其自然-社会系统关键要素可持续发展的安全性与公平性仍缺乏系统性认知。文章以黄河流域及其流经的9省（区）为对象，基于1990—2024年环境监测与社会经济数据，从安全公正空间（SJOS）理论视角构建可持续发展评价框架，结合GM(1,1)模型预测发展趋势并剖析关键影响因素。结果表明：（1）流域整体自然系统仅化肥使用量突破阈值，约超出阈值211.9%；社会系统中教育发展、性别平等、可持续城市3项指标未达标，达成率分别约为99.5%、99.6%和99.0%。流域及各省（区）普遍表现为社会系统破阈值指标更多、整体达成度更高的特征，系统整体呈改善趋势，预计2030年多数指标可进入安全区间，但社会层面可持续发展压力显著高于自然层面。（2）9省（区）突破SJOS阈值的指标累计达50项，区域异质性突出，整体呈现上游省（区）优于中、下游的空间格局。按突破数量排序为河南（12项）>陕西（8项）>山东（7项）>山西（5项）=青海（5项）>甘肃（4项）=宁夏（4项）>内蒙古（3项）>四川（2项）；预计2030年，有50%的突破阈值的指标回归安全范围。（3）识别出化肥使用量、淡水利用、土地转换、水资源及卫生（自来水普及率）、产业创新、可持续城市、性别平等、体面工作与经济增长等8项核心障碍因素，针对性开展精准治理可有效释放流域可持续发展潜力。研究拓展了SJOS理论在跨省级大型流域的应用场景，为优化黄河流域可持续发展政策体系、实施精准治理提供了重要参考。

Abstract:

Background, aim, and scope The Yellow River Basin currently faces dual challenges: a fragile ecological environment and low-quality development. Traditional evaluation systems are insufficient to address the coupling conflicts between the natural and social systems in the basin. Although notable progress has been made in ecological conservation and high-quality development, a systematic understanding of the safety and equity of key elements within the natural-social systems remains lacking. Furthermore, the safety thresholds, spatiotemporal patterns, and evolutionary trends of these key elements have yet to be clarified. This study aims to fill these research gaps. Materials and methods This study focuses on the Yellow River Basin and its nine provincial-level regions. Utilizing environmental monitoring and socio-economic data from 1990 to 2024, a sustainability assessment framework was developed based on the Safe and Just Space (SJOS) theory. The GM(1,1) model was applied to forecast development trends and identify key influencing factors. Results The findings show that: (1) in the basin scale, only chemical fertilizer application in natural systems exceeds the threshold, exceeding it by approximately 211.9%. In the social system, three indicators including education development, gender equality and sustainable cities, failed to meet the standards, with achievement rates of approximately 99.5%, 99.6% and 99.0%, respectively. Both the entire basin and its nine provincial-level regions share a common feature: the social system has more indicators exceeding the thresholds, yet it achieves a higher overall compliance level. The natural-social systems show an overall improving trend. (2) A total of 50 indicators across the nine provincial-level regions exceeded the SJOS thresholds, presenting obvious regional heterogeneity. In terms of spatial distribution, the upstream regions perform better than the midstream and downstream regions. Ranked by the number of threshold-exceeding indicators, the regions are ordered as follows: Henan (12) > Shaanxi (8) > Shandong (7) > Shanxi (5) = Qinghai (5) > Gansu (4) = Ningxia (4) > Inner Mongolia (3) > Sichuan (2). It is estimated that 50% of these threshold-exceeding indicators will return to the safe range by 2030. (3) Eight core restricting factors were identified: chemical fertilizer use, freshwater utilization, land conversion, water resources and sanitation (tap water coverage rate), industrial innovation, sustainable cities, gender equality, and decent work and economic growth. Discussion Current understanding of the key constraints on sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin varies considerably due to differences in theoretical frameworks and analytical methods. This study differentiates itself by integrating safety and justice as core dimensions, and constructing a sustainability evaluation framework for the natural-social systems from the SJOS perspective. It offers a novel analytical pathway for assessing sustainable development in the region and enhances comprehension of critical elements within this complex coupled system. Conclusions It is projected that most indicators will fall within the safe range by 2030, while the social system will face significantly greater pressure for sustainable development than the natural system. Through precise governance of the eight core obstructive elements, the Yellow River Basin has great potential for sustainable development in the future. Recommendations and perspectives This study primarily relies on macro-level assessments using statistical data. Future research could be complemented by field investigations and case studies to enable more in-depth micro-level analysis of the underlying socio-economic mechanisms that drive the formation of obstacle factors.