低碳旅游背景下黄河流域旅游业碳排放时空分布差异及旅游经济脱钩关系研究

Low-carbon tourism in the context of spatial and temporal distribution differences of tourism carbon emissions and the decoupling relationship of tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin

关键词:  旅游业碳排放  Tapio脱钩  低碳旅游  黄河流域

Key words:  tourism carbon emissions  Tapio decoupling  low-carbon tourism  Yellow River Basin

摘要:

推动旅游业绿色发展对落实黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展重大国家战略至关重要。文章基于2009—2023年黄河流域9省（区）面板数据，采用“自下而上”法核算旅游碳排放，并运用Tapio脱钩模型实证考察了旅游业碳排放与旅游经济增长的脱钩关系及其时空演化特征。研究发现：(1) 从时空格局看，黄河流域旅游业碳排放与脱钩状态呈现显著的“上游-中游-下游”三段式分异特征。上游地区呈现“低总量、高波动、弱脱钩”的初级开发期特征；中游地区表现出“中总量、平缓增长、扩张连结为主”的结构转型阵痛期困境；下游地区则进入“高总量、低速增长、弱脱钩向强脱钩迈进”的质量提升攻坚期。(2) 从驱动机制看，脱钩状态的省际差异是各地区旅游发展模式、能源结构及政策韧性差异的综合体现，尤其在新冠疫情冲击下，差异化响应凸显了将绿色理念嵌入危机治理、构建韧性政策体系的关键作用。(3) 分区治理策略：上游应坚持“保育性低碳”路径，中游需攻坚“结构性突破”路径，而下游则应引领“绝对量控排”路径。研究为精准制定差异化减排政策、推动黄河流域旅游业绿色低碳转型提供了科学依据。

Abstract:

Background, aim, and scope Green transformation of the tourism industry is pivotal for ecological conservation and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), a region of major national strategic importance. However, a comprehensive understanding of the decoupling relationship between tourism economic growth and associated carbon emissions across this vast and heterogeneous basin remains limited. This study aims to address this gap by conducting a spatiotemporal analysis of tourism-related carbon emissions and their decoupling from economic growth within the basin. Specifically, it seeks to: (1) quantify decoupling states and identify their spatiotemporal evolution from 2009 to 2023; (2) diagnose the underlying drivers of regional heterogeneity in decoupling performance; and (3) propose differentiated, context-specific policy recommendations for low-carbon tourism development across the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the YRB. Materials and methods Using panel data from nine provinces (or autonomous regions) in the YRB (2009—2023), this study applies a bottom-up carbon accounting approach and the Tapio decoupling model to assess tourism-related carbon emissions and their decoupling from tourism revenue growth. Results (1) The upper reaches exhibit characteristics of a primary development stage: low total emissions, high volatility, and weak decoupling, highlighting the tension between economic stability and ecological constraints. (2) The middle reaches are in a structural transition dilemma, with moderate emissions, steady growth, and predominantly expansive coupling, indicating persistent reliance on traditional development models. (3) The lower reaches have entered a quality-oriented phase, featuring high total emissions, low growth rates, and a shift from weak to strong decoupling, reflecting rising marginal costs of absolute emission reductions. Discussion Theoretically, the identified “mosaic” pattern featuring high volatility upstream, moderate growth midstream, and high-volume, slow growth downstream, challenges the smooth trajectory implied by the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). It reveals the limitations of EKC theory in explaining transition challenges in complex and ecologically fragile regions. Practically, differentiated decoupling responses to external shocks are primarily driven by policy system resilience. Downstream provinces demonstrated rapid recovery by embedding green criteria into full-cycle governance (e.g., green consumption incentives), while upstream volatility exposed structural vulnerabilities. Thus, the key to low-carbon tourism lies not only in policy design but in building a resilient green governance system. Conclusions (1) A tripartite spatiotemporal pattern: Emissions and decoupling states vary distinctly across the upper, middle, and lower reaches, aligning with geographical and socio-economic gradients. (2) Decoupling as a diagnostic indicator: Inter-provincial variations reflect differences in tourism development models, energy structures, technological capacity, and policy resilience. (3) Policy resilience is critical: The divergent responses to external shocks underscore the importance of embedding green principles into crisis response mechanisms to sustain decoupling progress. Recommendations and perspectives To address tourism carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin, zonal governance strategies should be implemented: the upper reaches should adopt a conservation-based low-carbon approach by strengthening ecological redline constraints and establishing ecological compensation mechanisms, focusing on low-emission formats; the middle reaches should promote structural transformation through green transition funds to advance transport electrification and energy cleaning, achieving low-carbon conversion of high-carbon assets; and the lower reaches should lead an absolute emission control path by establishing carbon budgeting and total emission control mechanisms, developing smart tourism and zero-carbon demonstration zones to provide green technology standards for the entire basin. This differentiated governance system will effectively promote the synergy between ecological protection and high-quality development in the basin.